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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Dennis LendremORCiD, Dr Clare LendremORCiD, Dr David Woods, Ruth Rowland-Jones, Professor John IsaacsORCiD
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A Hogarth, or “wicked”, universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. In this paper we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. In contrast, Design of Experiments permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools allowing research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.
Author(s): Lendrem DW, Lendrem BC, Woods D, Rowland-Jones R, Burke M, Chatfield M, Isaacs JD, Owen MR
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Drug Discovery Today
Year: 2015
Volume: 20
Issue: 11
Pages: 1365-1371
Print publication date: 01/11/2015
Online publication date: 23/10/2015
Acceptance date: 29/09/2015
ISSN (print): 1359-6446
ISSN (electronic): 1878-5832
Publisher: Elsevier
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015
DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015
PubMed id: 26505134
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