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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Malcolm Farrow
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We consider Bayesian modelling of the inter-arrival times of vehicles on a road. We give particular attention to model checking and propose diagnostic plots to assess whether the model captures features observed in the data. Models for such processes are important in predicting the behaviour of road junctions. Two-component mixtures have often been used, with a variety of distributions for the components and non-Bayesian methods for fitting. The components are often regarded as representing 'free flowing' and 'congested' vehicles. We propose a gamma-exponential mixture and compare this with some other models. To allow for the serial dependence of headways, we consider the use of a hidden Markov chain for the mixture component allocation. © 2007 SAGE Publications.
Author(s): Cowburn GJ, Farrow M
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Statistical Modelling
Year: 2007
Volume: 7
Issue: 1
Pages: 73-89
Print publication date: 01/04/2007
ISSN (print): 1471-082X
ISSN (electronic): 1477-0342
Publisher: Sage Publications
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1471082X0600700105
DOI: 10.1177/1471082X0600700105
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