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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Corinne Mulley, Professor John Nelson, Dr Martin Higginson
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The Transport Operations Research Group, University of Newcastle upon Tyne has been commissioned by The Middlehaven Ultra Light Rail Consortium to carry out an impartial and objective review of the proposal for a hydrogen powered Ultra Light Rail System to serve the Middlehaven area of Middlesbrough and to provide responses to the questions raised in the feasibility study specification. The aim of the research is to evaluate the robustness of the key assumptions with respect to operations and finance and the methodology of the proposal and in particular to identify gaps in information. The research comprises two distinct but related activities. First, to investigate the operational feasibility of the proposed scheme and second, to investigate the cost/revenue and likely profitability of the proposed scheme. Proposed Network The proposed network provides good access throughout Middlehaven, with no part of the development being more than a short walk (approximately 400 metres) from a transit stop. This equates to a maximum of around 5 minutes walking time, which is within the bounds of current research guidelines (Section 2.1). It is essential that there are links to existing public transport interchanges (bus and train) otherwise travellers finding that they need to walk to the boundary of Middlehaven before accessing the ULR are very much less likely to transfer( Section 2.2). The recommendation for the for linking Middlehaven via Middlesbrough railway station with the Bus Station, for reasons of engineering cost, commercial attractiveness, feasibility of double track alignment and avoidance of public opposition is via Albert Bridge, Albert Road, Corporation Road and Newport Road (Section 2.3 and Appendix 1). Consideration should be given to the route pattern within the Middlehaven site to reduce journey times, reduce track length and offer further operational advantages. It is likely that a simplified route in the form of a single spine could offer capital and operational cost savings. It is recommended that the complete network be constructed as double track (Section 2.4). A decision will need to be made on the depot location in time for land to be allocated; in particular if the depot is to be sited within Middlehaven. Park and Ride P&R is most appropriate where the destination is one that people really want to get to, but where parking is in short supply; otherwise potential customers may simply go elsewhere or use their car for access. For Middlehaven, this means that there needs to be clear parking policy which identifies whether or not there are sufficient on-site parking spaces for those accessing by car and only if car access is to be restricted will P&R become an important element of the proposal (Section 2.5). A policy of minimising car movements within the Middlehaven site could be innovative and be regarded as environmentally friendly. This would reinforce the Strategic Framework which suggests that only 10% of the daily residents to Middlehaven will be able to park on-site. For the ULR, a policy which restricts car parking on the Middlehaven site will have two benefits: first, the potential pool of passengers will increase and second, the construction costs of car parking spaces can be saved. Network and vehicle technology The Consortium proposes that the service should be provided by hydrogen powered ultra light rail vehicles. Most of the appropriate technologies are already available, but their application in combination has not yet taken place. It will be important for the timely introduction of a reliable and cost-effective public transport network for Middlehaven that all the innovative elements are available and proven to work together when they are required (Section 2.6.1). There are a number of issues outside the scope of this research which require resolution before a decision to go ahead is taken concerning development costs, manufacturer, operator and members of the Consortium (Section 2.6.2). Marketing and branding The presentation of any new initiative to the travelling public is a key factor in the success of the service from the delivery and patronage aspects. Good marketing and branding should be thought of as part of the overall investment (rather than simply an on-cost) since making the public aware of a new service is integral to its success. Awareness raising should also be considered as a continuous activity and not just related to the start-up of the service (Section 2.7). The importance of awareness raising is even more critical with new forms of public transport services such as ULR as an understanding of how their operational principles differ from conventional services is required (Section 2.7). Integrated ticketing is essential. Passengers facing interchange already have a time penalty and if a separate fare is paid for the ULR it is unlikely to be successful. In the first instance greater priority should be given to integration with Stagecoach whose urban network is focussed on the Middlesbrough bus station as the Arriva services from Redcar could more easily divert to serve Middlehaven. There are a number of options available to support the purchase of tickets by ULR passengers. Smart Card technology represents an interesting telematics option for fare collection functionalities (e.g. for the development of integrated payment services) (Section 2.7). Cost/revenue and likely profitability of the proposed scheme Demand Public transport mode share for travel to work in Middlesbrough is about 10% and the non-car mode share of this travel is between 15-20%, based on 2001 census. This gives a minimum level of potential demand for the ULR as it is not clear whether students attending college have a significantly higher usage of public transport than average (Seciton 3.1.1). Parking policy on the Middlehaven site could have a considerably impact on the potential take up of public transport by the daily population of Middlehaven and could indicate that public transport take up could be much higher (Section 3.1.3) No account has been taken of any additional demand arising from travel for other purposes, such as by residents or for access to non-work activities of the Middlehaven area (Section 3.1.4). Infrastructure Costs For the capital costs there is a sufficient gap between the conventional development costs associated with highway provision and the proposed ULR transit development costs for developers to be willing to provide the necessary infrastructure as part of their planning gain. It is important to gain early acceptance of a ULR scheme in order to exploit such developer contributions (Section 4.1) Vehicle Development Costs and Vehicle Capital Costs Clarification of the likely unit cost of a vehicle, post development, is important as significant variation in this cost can significantly affect the overall economic viability (Section 4.1). Economic Viability The assessement of economic viability will be undertaken as a financial analysis as it is intended that the Middlehaven ULR transit would be provided by the private sector (Section 4.1). However there are a number of external benefits which could form the basis of public sector subsidy, at least in the short term (up to five years). These include, substantial time and environmental benefits, the 'wow' factor that could be achieved from the implementation of this new technology and the potential to significantly raise the profile of Middlesbrough and bring knock-on economic benefits (Section 4.1). Financial Analysis Scenarios A single fare of 75p will provide break even or small surpluses on a year by year basis under most cost assumptions. As such, the operation of a ULR service should be of interest to a commercial operator, particularly if the local authority were to provide start up subsidy to cover the inevitable build up of traffic. However, this result is conditioned by a number of assumptions that require further investigation. The most encouraging result is the opportunity to start the service with fewer vehicles and achieve break even status with an attainable level of take up by the daily population of Phase 1 and charge a 50p single fare (Section 4). Overall conclusions Extension of the ULR to link with existing public transport termini and the provision on through-ticketing is fundamental to the viability of the scheme. On the basis of a minimum of 23,000 daily population for the Middlehaven site, it is estimated that a ULR will cover its costs on a year by year basis at a 50p single fare on a well branded service over a simplified route (not a figure of eight) which is double tracked and of high frequency (10 minutes minimum). This scenario assumes that the service commences with less than the full complement of vehicles until patronage has built up. It should be noted that subsidy may be required to cover the build up of traffic over the phased building of the Middlehaven site.
Author(s): Mulley CA, Nelson JD, Higginson MP
Publication type: Report
Publication status: Published
Series Title:
Year: 2005
Institution: Centre for Process Innovation
Place Published: Middlesbrough
