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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Compound cold extreme weather events—co-occurring multivariate events—have been defined as either cold-dry (CD) or coldwet (CW) depending on the absence or presence of heavy precipitation. Both event types induce varying levels of social and economic impacts across multiple sectors such as health, transport and energy depending on which type of event is experienced. In this study, we characterise these CD and CW events in the United Kingdom (UK) using a location-specific percentile approach and assess their relationship with a set of 30 UK-specific weather patterns to determine the event drivers. The results show that there are up to 14CDdays per winter season in the west of the study region compared to 4–8CDdays in the east. The inverse is shown for CW with 0–1days per winter season in the west and 2–3days in the east. CD events are predominantly driven by anticyclonic weather patterns (which are classified in the negative North Atlantic Oscillation regime), and CW days are driven by cyclonic weather patterns. This study provides evidence that a location-specific approach alongside weather pattern analysis could be adopted as a tool for impact-based forecasting at a medium-range lead time to forecast CD and CW events.
Author(s): Mattu KL, White CJ, Bloomfield HC, Robbins J
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: International Journal of Climatology
Year: 2025
Pages: Epub ahead of print
Online publication date: 05/04/2025
Acceptance date: 24/03/2025
Date deposited: 10/04/2025
ISSN (print): 0899-8418
ISSN (electronic): 1097-0088
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8859
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8859
Data Access Statement: The HadUK-Grid Gridded Climate Observations on a 5 km grid over the UK, v1.2.0.ceda dataset was used in this study. This dataset is publicly available through the UK Met Office Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) Archive: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/adf1a6cf830b4f5385c5d73609df8423/ (last accessed on 6/12/24).
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