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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Anna MurgatroydORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Although large dams can provide multiple benefits, they may negatively impact downstream riparians, and could be used to cause harm by withholding water. Concern about deliberately adversarial operation of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) is mounting in Egypt and overshadows the regional negotiations around water resources. We simulate a range of operational policies for the GERD, including an adversarial operation policy, which could reduce annual water releases from the High Aswan Dam (HAD) by 2.72 billion cubic meters (annual exceedance probability of 0.02) compared to operations that seek to reduce downstream water shortages. However, such a policy would reduce annual GERD hydropower generation by 1 TWh, which is equivalent to 7% of the GERD's annual electricity generation. The threat of Ethiopia withholding water is only occasionally credible, as it requires the reservoirs at the GERD and the HAD to both be unusually low, which we show will rarely occur.
Author(s): Whittington D, Hall J, Murgatroyd A, Wheeler K
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Water Policy
Year: 2024
Print publication date: 18/12/2024
Online publication date: 18/12/2024
Acceptance date: 29/11/2024
Date deposited: 06/01/2025
ISSN (print): 1366-7017
ISSN (electronic): 1996-9759
Publisher: IWA Publishing
URL: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2024.257
DOI: 10.2166/wp.2024.257
ePrints DOI: 10.57711/7b3z-yd20
Data Access Statement: Data cannot be made publicly available; readers should contact the corresponding author for details.
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