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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Craig Robson
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With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems’ resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localized failures depends on whether assets are affected randomly, in a targeted strategic way, or in any way in between. More than that, infrastructure decisions today, including new routes or improvements to existing assets, will underpin the behavior of the systems over the next century. It is important to separate and analyze the case of climate-based disruptions and how they affect systems’ resilience. This article presents a probabilistic resilience assessment framework where failure scenarios and network disruptions are generated using weather profile data from climate prediction models with component-level fragility functions. A case study is then carried out to quantify the resilience of Great Britain’s railway passenger transport system to high-temperature-related track buckling under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. A 95-year horizon on the resilience of the railway system is drawn. The results reveal the nonlinear responses of the railway system to the increasing temperature and show that models considering random asset failures overestimate the system’s resilience.
Author(s): Li Q, Punzo G, Robson C, Arbabi H, Mayfield M
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: IEEE Systems Journal
Year: 2023
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Pages: 24-35
Online publication date: 14/12/2024
Acceptance date: 22/10/2023
Date deposited: 16/10/2024
ISSN (electronic): 1937-9234
Publisher: IEEE
URL: https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2023.3329765
DOI: 10.1109/JSYST.2023.3329765
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