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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Iain McKinnonORCiD, Dr Patrick Keown
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Background: In 1939, Penrose hypothesised that the number of psychiatric inpatients was inversely related to the size of the prison population. Aims: To ascertain whether the Penrose hypothesis held true in England between 1960 and 2018/19. Methods: Time series analysis, using time lags of 20 years, to explore the association between prison population (separately for male and female prisoners) and NHS psychiatric bed numbers. Non-psychiatric bed numbers were used as a comparator. Results: Psychiatric beds reduced 93%. Prison population increased 208%. Negative correlation between these changes was strong and highly significant (r =-0ยท96). Only annual reduction in psychiatric bed numbers was associated with an increase in the prison population (strongest at lag of ten years). Both mental illness and learning disability bed closures were associated with increase in female prisoners ten years later. Only learning disability bed reduction was significant explanatory variable for increase in male prisoners. Conclusions: The Penrose hypothesis held true between 1960 and 2018/19 in England; for every 100 psychiatric beds closed, there were 36 more prisoners ten years later: 3 more female and 33 more male prisoners. Our results suggest that the increase in female prisoners in particular may be connected with NHS bed closure.
Author(s): McKinnon I, Keown P
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Published
Conference Name: XXXVIIIth International Congress on Law and Mental Health
Year of Conference: 2024
Online publication date: 26/07/2024
Acceptance date: 22/10/2023
Publisher: International Academy of Law and Mental Health
URL: https://ialmh.org/
