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Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

Extreme wind is the main driver of loss in North-West Europe, with flooding being the second-highest driver. These hazards are currently modelled independently, and it is unclear what the contribution of their co-occurrence is to loss. They are often associated with extra-tropical cyclones, with studies focusing on co-occurrence of extreme meteorological variables. However, there has not been a systematic assessment of the meteorological drivers of the co-occurring \textit{impacts} of compound wind-flood events. This study quantifies this using an established storm severity index (SSI) and recently developed flood severity index (FSI), applied to the UKCP18 12km regional climate simulations, and a Great Britain (GB) focused hydrological model. The meteorological drivers are assessed using 30 weather types, which are designed to capture a broad spectrum of GB weather. Daily extreme compound events (exceeding 99th percentile of both SSI and FSI) are generally associated with cyclonic weather patterns, often from the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and Northwesterly classifications. Extreme compound events happen in a larger variety of weather patterns in a future climate. The location of extreme precipitation events shifts southward towards regions of increased exposure. The risk of extreme compound events increases almost four-fold in the UKCP18 simulations (from 14 events in the historical period, to 55 events in the future period). It is also more likely for there to be multi-day compound events. At seasonal timescales years tend to be either flood-prone or wind-damage-prone. In a future climate there is a larger proportion of years experiencing extreme seasonal SSI and FSI totals. This could lead to increases in reinsurance losses if not factored into current modelling.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Bloomfield HC, Bates P, Shaffrey LC, Hillier J, Champion A, Cotterill D, Pope JO, Kumar D

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Environmental Research Letters

Year: 2024

Volume: 19

Issue: 2

Online publication date: 09/01/2024

Acceptance date: 09/01/2024

Date deposited: 10/01/2024

ISSN (electronic): 1748-9326

Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd.

URL: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7

Data Access Statement: No new data were created or analysed in this study


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
NE/V017756/1
NE/V018698/1
NERC
UK Climate Resilience Programme in association with UKCEH

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