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Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Otero N, Martius O, Allen S, Bloomfield HC, Schaefli B

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Meteorological Applications

Year: 2022

Volume: 29

Issue: 5

Online publication date: 13/09/2022

Acceptance date: 21/07/2022

Date deposited: 23/11/2023

ISSN (print): 1350-4827

ISSN (electronic): 1469-8080

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd

URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089

DOI: 10.1002/met.2089


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