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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Mark Booth
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Introduction: A number of studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on schistosomiasis risk. The importance of considering different species of intermediate host snails separately has never previously been explored. Methods: An agent-based model of water temperature and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics and Schistosoma mansoni transmission was parameterised to two additional species of snail: B. glabrata and B. alexandrina. Results: Simulated B. alexandrina populations had lower minimum and maximum temperatures for survival than B. pfeifferi populations (12.5-29.5°C vs. 14.0-31.5°C). B. glabrata populations survived over a smaller range of temperatures than either B. pfeifferi or B. alexandrina (17.0°C-29.5°C). Infection risk peaked at 16.5°C, 25.0°C and 19.0°C respectively when B. pfeifferi, B. glabrata and B. alexandrina were simulated. For all species, infection risk increased sharply once a minimum temperature was reached. Conclusions: The results from all three species suggest that infection risk may increase dramatically with small increases in temperature in areas at or near the currents limits of schistosome transmission. The effect of small increases in temperature in areas where schistosomiasis is currently found will depend both on current temperatures and on the species of snail acting as intermediate host(s) in the area. In most areas where B. pfeifferi is the host, infection risk is likely to decrease. In cooler areas where B. glabrata is the host, infection risk may increase slightly. In cooler areas where B. alexandrina is the host, infection risk may more than double with only 2°C increase in temperature. Our results show that it is crucial to consider the species of intermediate host when attempting to predict the effects of climate change on schistosomiasis. © 2014 McCreesh, Booth.
Author(s): McCreesh N, Booth M
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: PLoS ONE
Year: 2014
Volume: 9
Issue: 7
Online publication date: 02/07/2014
Acceptance date: 03/01/2014
Date deposited: 30/08/2017
ISSN (electronic): 1932-6203
Publisher: Public Library of Science
URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087892
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0087892
PubMed id: 24988377
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