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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Kevin Wilson, Dr Sarah Heaps, Dr Malcolm Farrow
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).
Organisations which distribute resources over complex networks need to be able to meet demand.They require accurate forecasts of demand across the network. We consider short term demand forecasting forNorthern Gas Networks (NGN), who deliver gas to 2.7 million homes and businesses. They require forecasts atdifferent locations for each hour over each day. The locations are of distinct types by the dominant user groups.For each we develop a time series model to forecast short term demand, utilising seasonality at monthly, dailyand hourly levels and temperature. Annually NGN produce Gas Demand forecasts for a decade, which supportinvestment and planning and inform National Grid. We develop time-series models and Bayesian inference toprovide forecasts of daily demand. A challenge arises in modelling demand by industry where weather has lesspredictive power and step changes occur due to large consumers switching to or from gas.
Author(s): Wilson KJ, Heaps SE, Farrow M
Editor(s): Walls, L; Revie, M; Bedford, T;
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Published
Conference Name: Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016
Year of Conference: 2016
Pages: 425-432
Print publication date: 13/09/2016
Acceptance date: 13/06/2016
Date deposited: 03/11/2016
Publisher: CRC Press
URL: https://www.crcpress.com/Risk-Reliability-and-Safety-Innovating-Theory-and-Practice-Proceedings/Walls-Revie-Bedford/p/book/9781138029972
Library holdings: Search Newcastle University Library for this item
Series Title: Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016
ISBN: 9781138029972
