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The Implications of Ageing and Migration for the Future Population, Health, Labour Force and Households of Northern England

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Pia Wohland, Emerita Professor Carol Jagger

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Abstract

Northern England faces important demographic challenges over the next 25 years: population ageing, a more ethnically diverse society, moderate demographic growth but with large differences between most and least successful localities. We examine past and future demographic changes in Northern England and their effect on population health, labour force size and household numbers, drawing out implications for public policy. We use new projections for England’s local authority (LA) populations by ethnicity from 2001 to 2036. The population of Northern England will grow between 8 % and 12 %, depending on projection scenario. So, aggregate demand for goods and services in Northern England will continue to increase. The population will experience, however, rising old age dependency ratios. To maintain current ratios, pension entitlement age will need to increase to 70 by 2036 rather than the 68 planned in the 2011 Pension Act. Population ageing will impact numbers with limiting long term illness, which will increase more than the population as a whole because the age structure will become older. A decrease in the labour force will occur as the baby boomers retire, if labour force participation rates remain constant. Action needs to be taken to encourage employers to introduce flexible transitions to retirement that reward older workers who wish to continue in work. We also project the numbers of households, which increase a little faster than the population because ageing shifts the population towards older ages where households are smaller.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Rees P, Zuo C, Wohland P, Jagger C, Norman P, Boden P, Jasinska M

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy

Year: 2013

Volume: 6

Issue: 2

Pages: 93-122

Print publication date: 01/06/2013

ISSN (print): 1874-463X

ISSN (electronic): 1874-4621

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9086-7

DOI: 10.1007/s12061-013-9086-7

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