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Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Kevin Wilson, Dr Malcolm Farrow

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Abstract

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from numbers of failures insimilar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a ratherindirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations.An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failuretimes.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Wilson KJ, Farrow M

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability

Year: 2010

Volume: 224

Issue: 4

Pages: 309-321

Print publication date: 01/12/2010

ISSN (print): 1748-006X

ISSN (electronic): 1748-0078

Publisher: Sage Publications

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1243/1748006XJRR293

DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR293

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